The season is a month old, and the National League West, as expected, is proving to be the most competitive division in baseball. A roundtable of NL West beat reporters gathered to examine where things stand as we inch toward May:
Four teams in the NL West are above .500, and three are playing at a .600 clip. We all knew this would be a competitive division, but I’m not sure any of us predicted all four teams would have been this hot from the start. If you had to narrow it down, what is the main key to success for the team you cover?
AJ Cassavell, Padres: I’ll narrow it to two keys: pitching and Fernando Tatis Jr. Four-ninths of the Padres’ starting lineup is on the injured list, and the bottom half of their order is full of question marks. But they’ve managed to keep winning because of … pitching and Fernando Tatis Jr.
We’ll start with the pitching. The Padres recently became the first team since the 1992 Braves to throw seven shutouts in their first 24 games. The best way to mitigate lineup concerns? Don’t allow any runs. Meanwhile, Tatis has significantly improved his plate discipline this year. He’s been able to offset some concerns at the bottom of the lineup because of his MVP-caliber performance at the top.
Sonja Chen, Dodgers: This feels like the obvious answer, but when the three MVPs atop the order go, so do the Dodgers. When Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are on, their lineup becomes incredibly difficult to navigate. Individually, these three can flip a game on its head, and together, they form the toughest part of a lineup that can do damage from top to bottom.
Los Angeles' offense has been streaky in the first month, and even Ohtani, Betts and Freeman have seen some inconsistency at the plate. But one of the biggest things we learned during the Dodgers' 8-0 start to their title defense is they can outhit some of their other issues on the field. The Big Three are usually somewhere near the center of the action.
Steve Gilbert, D-backs: The Diamondbacks led all of baseball in runs scored last year and were expected to take a step back offensively after losing first baseman Christian Walker and DH Joc Pederson to free agency. They may yet take that step back, but right now, it’s their offense that has led the way this year. Josh Naylor has done a nice job replacing Walker at first, and Pavin Smith has stepped up to fill Pederson’s left-handed DH role.
More than that, though, outfielder Corbin Carroll is a huge reason the offense is humming. After a brutal start to last year, Carroll came out of the gates on fire and ranks among the league leaders in offense. The Diamondbacks have been without Ketel Marte for the past three weeks due to a hamstring issue, but he’s expected back soon.
Maria Guardado, Giants: The biggest difference-maker for the Giants thus far has been center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who is looking like a star in the making now that he’s fully recovered from the left shoulder injury that limited him to 37 games as a rookie last year. But they’ve also gotten key production from designated hitter Wilmer Flores, who has an MLB-high 28 RBIs, and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, which has helped them overcome slow starts from other position players like Willy Adames, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Patrick Bailey. Their pitching -- led by ace Logan Webb and an excellent bullpen -- along with their improved defense has kept them in games most days, giving them a chance to win even with an offense that still isn’t firing on all cylinders.
Let’s look at all of this through a realistic lens. History tells us not every team will be able to maintain skyrocketing winning percentages the entire season – even the best ones experience ebbs and flows over the course of six months. If you could, forecast one area that might prove challenging for each team?
Cassavell: The Padres can feel optimistic in any playoff series -- given the front of their rotation, their bullpen and the stars in their lineup (when healthy). But realistically, winning the division would require a level of health that San Diego just isn’t getting right now. If Yu Darvish can’t return to the rotation soon -- and if Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward aren’t back in the lineup soon -- the Padres will have a hard time keeping pace.
Chen: The Dodgers have some of the best rotation depth in the game on paper. But there's a serious question of how much they can realistically get out of some of their arms. It would take a lot for the team to be in the situation it was in last postseason, when L.A. was down to three starting pitchers in traditional roles. But Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are coming back from elbow injuries, and the biggest midseason reinforcements -- Clayton Kershaw and Shohei Ohtani -- are also working their way back from long-term injuries. So while the ceiling is incredibly high for this group, there are also question marks -- and that's assuming that everyone stays healthy, which already has not been the case.
Gilbert: I touched briefly on the offense possibly coming back to earth a bit, but I think a bigger concern right now is the starting pitching depth. The talk at the beginning of Spring Training was that the team had too many starters with seven. But Jordan Montgomery is out for the year and they decided to keep Ryne Nelson as a long reliever with the hopes of keeping him stretched out as rotation depth. That’s hard to do, and if they can’t keep Nelson stretched out then any injury will force them to turn to unproven young pitchers like Yilber Díaz and Cristian Mena.
Guardado: The Giants haven’t gotten much out of first base due to the early struggles from Wade, so they’ll need more consistent production from him moving forward. The club’s No. 1 prospect -- Bryce Eldridge -- recently made his season debut at Double-A Richmond, but the organization believes the 20-year-old slugger still needs a lot of development before he’ll be ready to hold down first base in the Majors, which should give Wade plenty of runway to snap out of his funk at the plate.
Has anything surprised you in the first month of the season?
Cassavell: The Padres envisioned big things from Nick Pivetta when they signed him. But I’m not sure even they envisioned this. Pivetta has a 1.20 ERA -- the lowest in Padres history through five starts -- and a .155 batting average against. He’s been downright dominant in a rotation that needed another arm to step up after San Diego came up short in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. Sure, there’s a lot of season left. But there’s plenty of reason to believe Pivetta’s breakout is for real. He already looks like one of the offseason’s best bargains.
Chen: The Dodgers had been interested in Tommy Edman for quite some time before acquiring him ahead of last year's Trade Deadline and signing him to an extension in the offseason. But even they have been surprised by just how impactful the 2024 NL Championship Series MVP has been early on. The most unexpected way he's contributed? Edman leads the team with eight homers and is well on pace to surpass his career high of 13. The power is a bonus, as he's also been fantastic at second base and in occasional starts in center field.
Gilbert: Pavin Smith was a first-round pick in 2017 out of the University of Virginia, but he struggled to establish himself at the Major League level. In fairness, he didn’t exactly get an extended opportunity to play over the last few years. While in Triple-A last year, Smith made some adjustments and his production down the stretch – including a three-homer game against the Astros – earned him a shot at replacing Pederson. Smith has made the most of that opportunity. Time will tell if Smith can keep it up for a full season, but the results so far have been very encouraging.
Guardado: The Giants were obviously high on Lee when they signed him to a six-year, $113 million deal ahead of the 2024 season, but it’s been remarkable to see how quickly he’s been able to adjust to Major League pitching after missing so much time last year. His elite contact skills and ability to find the gaps have made him a great fit for Oracle Park, where he’s quickly become a fan favorite. If he sustains his hot start, he could end up becoming one of the best position players to ever come out of the KBO.
Preseason predictions mostly centered around the Dodgers, and the assumption they would dominate the division, coast to the World Series, and win it. Which, sure, could happen. But right now, it looks like L.A. running away with the NL West is not a given. In your estimation, what team will be the hardest for each club to hold off for the division title?
Cassavell: The Dodgers. Their level of rotation depth is one the Padres simply can’t match. The front-end arms in San Diego have serious upside. But as far as winning the division goes, the Padres are going to need to find starts somewhere at the back end. They’ve made it work so far, but those question marks will persist -- at least as it pertains to a season-long pennant race. In a short series, though? With Michael King, Dylan Cease, Pivetta and Darvish, the Padres would feel good about their chances against anybody.
Chen: My gut says that the Padres could present a challenge down the stretch once more. The Dodgers are constructed well in that they should theoretically get stronger as the season goes along, and they've already shown that they can find ways to win despite not being at their best. But as I wrote earlier, health doesn't guarantee immediate results, and health is never a guarantee. I think the Dodgers and Padres have some similar qualities in that regard, where there's a high ceiling but also a lot of uncertainty. I ultimately think that the Dodgers will win the division, but it might not be as cut-and-dried as many assumed it would be after their big offseason.
Gilbert: The Dodgers haven’t run away with the division yet, but they have a depth the Diamondbacks can’t match. A.J. has laid out some of the Padres depth issues, but I still think they might be a little better. It will be fascinating to watch in another week or so when the NL West teams start playing each other. One thing to note, if the Diamondbacks' surprise run to the World Series in 2023 showed us anything, it’s that an NL West team doesn’t have to be better than the Dodgers over 162 games, only in a short series. Arizona would be happy just to get into the postseason and take its chances with a front three of Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Guardado: The Dodgers still feel like the biggest threat given the sheer level of talent on their roster. But it’s worth noting that the Giants were the last team to dethrone Los Angeles in the National League West in 2021, when they came out of nowhere to win a franchise-record 107 games. Time will tell if the Giants will be able to return to those heights this year, but they definitely believe they can defy expectations and stay competitive in the division, especially now that Buster Posey is back leading the organization.